This is an update to last week’s medium-term analysis that was centered around Bitcoin’s ( BTCUSD ) Channel Up and the bearish – bullish break-out levels:

** Bearish break-out on clear levels **
As you see, the Flag pattern , that started after the price made a new Higher High at the top of the Channel Up, failed to break above the ( bullish ) invalidation level (48,300) and instead broke below the Flag’s bottom (Lower Lows). After a short consolidation around the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), it also broke below the Internal Higher Lows trend-line. All levels were clearly mentioned on that idea last week.

** The 1st Higher Lows trend-line **
Now on today’s analysis, I will make one small but can turn out to be critical addition to the technical mix. That is the First Higher Lows trend-line (green line) which is parallel to those (Higher Lows) of the bottom of the Channel Up. As the chart shows, this has offered a support and bounce point to Bitcoin six times since January 27. The price came yesterday just a fraction before hitting it and we already see a minor rebound reaction.

** The MACD and Death Cross **
On top of all these, the 4H MACD indicator is about to make a Bullish Cross, and is in a similar position as it was on the February 24 bottom.

Interestingly enough, that previous (Feb 24) bottom that made a new Higher Low on the Channel Up, took place exactly when the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) crossed below the 4H MA200 and formed the well-known Death Cross pattern. Technically, we are just one day before those two trend-lines form a new Death Cross.

Will those be enough to form a bottom now and extend today’s small bounce into a larger medium-term rebound within the Channel Up, or the price will make one last pull-back for a ‘clean’ Higher Low at the bottom of the Channel Up? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!

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