#BTC is now trying to close its first full candle above bull market support band, which is now at 44.7K and also matches the 200 day EMA and the 50% Fib. Retracement traced from July 2021.

We’re even close to the 200 day SMA at 48.2K, which is the last moving average to conquer and just 2 days away from our yellow box, where we pointed out now weeks ago those were the dates where we could see a potential trend reversal (March 30th – April 3rd).

We have multiple levels to conquer to the upside, but 2 of the most important are 50% Fib. Retracement and 50% Fib. Extension. The first one would imply an upside continuation to the prices we know from last cycle. The second one, could imply a potential new all time high coming.

Now, this won’t happen without corrections or retracements and that’s healthy for the market. So, what do we have to watch closely now?

First of all, volume . Volume Oscillator shows volume going down in the last few days, while price is going up. And that’s not good, because the volume should always rise in a rallying market. If it doesn’t, the chances of a bull trap increases.

MACD , Stochastic and RSI: an Stochastic and RSI rise is expected during a rally, but it’s much healthier if the rally occurs with these indicators outside the overbought range. Stochastic is already overbought, RSI is almost there and MACD is climbing to a potential bearish cross.

Short term price action (4H and 2H charts): if we take a look at both charts we can see volume is going down pretty fast, which is no good at all. Remember: volume is the blood of the market, without enough volume , no rally is sustainable.

Also, Open Interest (Cryptoquant) is now at 14.5B with a huge spike in the last days. It’s not something to be concerned yet because certain rise in OI is expected, but remember: last 3 bull cycles started with OI between 5-8B and last 3 big corrections (30/50% dips) started with OI between 14-16B.

Nasdaq is also something to watch, because crypto markets and tech stocks have shown a really strong correlation during the years. The thing is Nasdaq is not yet above 20W SMA or 21W EMA (bull support), but is getting there. It has a strong resistance about 14871, and bull support band is around 15000. MACD , Stochastic and RSI on Nasdaq look much better than Bitcoin’s, with the RSI even in normal levels.

So, what all this could mean?

1 | Although bitcoin has surpassed 46K , it’s still too early to say that the bull market is back.

2 | I think it’s prudent to wait at least 2/3 days to see if #BTC continues to close candles above 46K .

3 | We will likely see a correction after this “rally” today, since the volume is not following and Nasdaq still has some barriers to overcome.

LAST | I think the bull market is going to arrive and maybe even on the dates indicated (yellow box) but I would wait a few more days before diving into the market.

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Have a nice week,