I think it’s safe to say nobody knows where the bottom is. We could go to 20k, 12.5k or 25k could be the bottom. But I think it’s also safe to say it is reasonable to start dollar cost averaging in the market soon. The weekly RSI is at 33 which historically is very low. But the true market bottom is usually around RSI 27 so there is probably still some downside left. Bear markets can last for years but they don’t have to. BTC has a finite supply and a lot of it is stuck in dead wallets with lost keys, that is one of the reasons why I think the risk/reward ratio is starting to look attractive.

The DXY could be starting to form a top, as we see a bearish divergence on the Daily RSI which could be bullish for risk on assets across the board. But these divergences can take a long time to play out, the DXY could still form a higher high with a lower high on the RSI before reversing to it’s macro downtrend.

So I am neutral for now but as a long term investor, slowly dollar cost averaging down from here seems like a good idea. Remember 10.5 trillion were printed in 2020, this money hasn’t vanished, a lot of it is just waiting on the sidelines which we can clearly see on the total money supply chart.

Good luck people and remember never buy more than you can afford to lose. 🙂