I’ve been following this idea for a few weeks now and the accordance between the current movements and the bear market of 2014 seem astonishing. The recent top in November 2021 corresponds to the relief top in June 2014, which was followed by 30 weeks of continued downtrend.

If the correlations continues the current upwards movement will not gain any momentum and we will slowly keep bleeding for another two months until we get a capitulation event, which will bring us down to the 200 week SMA . Historic data suggest we’ll liquidate any positions just below the 200 week SMA and then continue to hover above it until enough time has passed for the next bull run to start.

To break the correlation we’ll have to at least break out above the recent highs of 45.5k or even better the neckline of the weekly H&S at around 48k in the next two weeks.