The LMACD ( MACD on the logarithmic scale), is a very useful indicator when trying to identify trend shifts, especially on the long-term time-frames. It is particulary fit to Bitcoin when analyzing its historic Cycles on the 1W chart.

It appears that the LMACD is only 2-3 weeks away from forming a Bullish Cross (blue line crossing above the orange line) on the 1W time-frame. As the specification suggests, it is a bullish formation technically, and history certainly agrees with it as in a total of 16 LMACD Bullish Crosses only 2 failed to deliver a Higher High. In fact, both of those where the first Bullish Cross in the last two Bear Cycles (red Rectangles). Assuming that since April 2020, BTC is running on a new Bear Cycle (the smoothest as I’ve called it in past analyses), we see that it has already made one Bullish Cross that delivered a rally and not a new Low. If the upcoming Bullish Cross fails to post a new rally, it will historically be the first time to do so as a 2nd Bullish Cross within a Bear Cycle.

It is obvious that odds are vastly against this scenario and most likely the next LMACD Bullish Cross on the 1W time-frame will deliver a rally that will leave behind the Cycle’s market bottom. Would you agree or you think this time is different and the next Bullish Cross will deliver a new Low (likely the market bottom)? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!

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