The price action between 2014 and 2022 is different, there is no doubt about that.

But look at the moving average (yellow line) of the RSI . It is very similar, almost identical.

There were 6 key moves in the 2014 bull cycle which I highlighted on the chart. There seem to be 6 corresponding key moves for the current cycle as well. The 6th move, which marks a capitulation event, might be about to happen.

In 2014 the RSI broke down from the falling wedge and price declined by 73%. If history repeats and that same move happens today, we end up at about $10K. $10K is a very important level historically. It’s acted as support and resistance multiple times.

I’m sceptical that we’ll see a 73% crash this time around, since we only need a 30% correction to retest the 200-week MA. But then again the macro landscape today is markedly worse than 2014, so who knows how ugly a capitulation could get.