Bitcoin finally broke above the 3 month consolidation that started after January 05, which was in the form of an Ascending Triangle pattern. Yesterday, the price broke above the Triangle’s Resistance and at the same time the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) and is about to test the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since January 02. As mentioned on my most recent analysis two days ago, the 1D MA200 was BTC’s first target in the event of a Triangle break-out:

Now let’s look at the dynamics more closely and see how the price action over the past 12 month period can set parameters for this rally. First, the long-term Channel Up that Bitcoin ( BTCUSD ) has been trading in since the April 14 2021 High (All Time High at the time), is not a new concept. It is an idea that I first introduced on the 1W time-frame, back on January 25:

** The Channel Up, the 1D MA200 as a pivot and the 4H MA200 as a Support **
So, based on the last rally that started after the previous Higher Low (bottom) on the Channel Up, if the price breaks the 1D MA200, it could continue as high as the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (55300) at least, before considering a pull-back. If it gets rejected though on the 1D MA200 and fails to close a 1D candle above it, BTC could seek the 4H MA200 (green dotted line) as a Support before it resumes the uptrend.

That trend-line (4H MA200) is critical to the current break-out, as in the July – September 2021 rally, it maintained the bullish momentum and when it broke (after the price marginally broke above the 0.618 Fibonacci), the pull-back of Bullish Phase 1 came. As a result, if the current rally breaks above the 1D MA200, look for the first signs of a pull-back when the 4H MA200 breaks.

** The 1W RSI peak **
A similar benchmark that may indicate the peak of Bullish Phase 1 of this new rally to a Higher High, is the RSI on the 1W time-frame. It seems that the current leg is fairly symmetrical to the July – August one, so if the 1W RSI hits the 62.10 Resistance and fails, look for a price pull-back.

This pull-back shouldn’t be much lower than the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level (46800). If we see buy accumulation there, then the Bullish Phase 2 could start and complete this rally near the Higher Highs trend-line of the April 2021 Channel Up.

Do you agree with this road map to a new All Time High? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!

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