2 Week Chart

The previous 2 Bitcoin cycles behaved similarly, providing a reasonable trend to consider how BTC price action will behave.

The previous two cycles retraced 86% & 84% closing at/below the 100 EMA , creating a bear trap. PA reversed w/ relief rallies establishing lower highs and proverbial bull traps or “dead cat bounces” into a final leg down. PA ultimately reversing after establishing a bottom around the 200 EMA .

Given previous 2 cycles, Bitcoin wicked off the 100 EMA , not closing a candle at/below it… so further downside is reasonable but not guaranteed before PA reverses into the bull trap/dead cat bounce up to approx. $42k to $47k before a final capitulation down to the 200 EMA projecting to around $20k.

The 2 previous cycle endings give a good baseline the volatility offers excellent swing trade opportunities w/ low leverage in the coming weeks, caution must be taken on lower timeframes as implied volatility will result in wild price swings.

If using leverage, be sure to mitigate risk tightly using higher timeframe support/resistance levels.