Hey evyone,

BTC’s price stabilised at the MA50 late last week but only for a very limited time. Monday saw a big drop with the price being ultimately supported by the trend line we have been monitoring for the last few weeks. For now it seems that BTC wants to stabilise around this trend line . In addition to this, BTC has entered a price zone $38 – $39.5K, which showed a lot of volume over the past few months. However, trading volume in general has been really low lately as I mentioned before, which is not a good sign. If we lose the current trend line as support, we’re most likely testing the next one below for support at around $36.5 – $37K.

The good news is: the lower BTC drops, the more the bulls outweigh the bears from a volume based perspective. BUT the more often BTC tests the lower levels, the more likely it gets for BTC to break through them. Nevertheless, I’m still bullish and hope that BTC will find support at either the current levels or at around $36.5 – $37K.

I also want to add that BTC’s price action followed the same trajectory as the US100 (NASDAQ, which has corrected almost 60 % of its last impulse) and US500 ( S&P 500 , corrected 50% of its last impulse) since 31.03.22. I do believe that once these indices find support, which is quite likely at the current levels, BTC will also join the reversal. Flipping above $40.5K and consequently printing a new long signal in the H4 would be a good starting point.

In terms of scenarios, I’m looking at the yellow and violet ones. As mentioned before, flipping above $40.5K would lead BTC to turn bullish on the 4-hour-chart (yellow path). Losing $39.2K would probably lead BTC towards the lower trend line (violet).

Have a nice day and please feel free to comment if you have something you like me to explain.