In the previous thread I had 3 possible scenarios but now BTC has revealed a bit more and if it closes the week here or lower then something like this may be on the cards:

Following the big bullish candle on Monday that had every hodl-chartist screaming “Russia!” – BTC is currently printing a lower high. And this could just be a cool off before the next wave up. However If it holds here then since January bottom we have “low, high, higher low, lower high.” And so now as long as the recent HL remains then the contracting pattern is most likely which with standard eliott wave will be a 5 wave ABCDE to then collapse down to new lows.

If this does happen then the current contracting pattern will be a higher degree connecting wave – an X wave. And it will connect the W wave from ATH in August and it will have an equidistant or phi related Y wave to follow and take price lower. The first strong fib would be an equidistant 1:1 where W is 1 and Y is 1 to take BTC down to 20K.

Also notice potential A wave hit the 0.382 fibonacci retracement from the top – this is a weak fib for a reversal and if it holds would signal that BTC is in a continuation pattern currently.

So thats the textbook elliott wave , but BTC makes very exotic manoeuvres so I wont be expecting this exactly but something along these lines. BTC does like to drift a lot before capitulations so we could well see an extended contracting perhaps akin to 2018 final capitulation.

RSI that looked bullish just recently has also rolled over to print a lower higher and also reflects contraction currently.

However if BTC breaks does break above C then it will be another wave up instead and then BTC will most likely hot 47K for a 1:1 ABC , but currently the idea presented appears to be most probable. Either way its going to 20K.

See you at 20K.

Not advice.