Is Bitcoin price action about to print its seventh weekly red candle ever? Does look like it.

Such is my free time, looking left on weekly charts (above) price action has never printed 7 weekly red candles in a row before now.

The Bollinger Band is a useful indicator to identify how far a group of values is from the average. Think of the number of people walking through the entrance to a supermarket on a given day. There’s going to be period of time where numbers peak and fall from day beginning to end. A normal distribution (actually more Poisson distribution like) and a fairly deterministic example, however the point is made. Price action is either in or out of the band. 1 or 0. Yes or no. It turns out that a ‘no’ is like shoppers entering the supermarket at 6am or leaving at 11pm.

95% of all candles trade inside the band. Outside this price action is now 2 sigma from mean standard deviation. i.e 5% of all supermarket shoppers coming and going through the entrance.

Why is this significant? Even if you know nothing about statistics, alls you need know is price action interacts with the mean with some regularity, currently that mean is $43k.

There’s something else very interesting, and that’s just how far price action is outside the band since it left the band.
Today price action action is -32% since exiting the band. How does this compare with past events I hear you ask?

March 2020 -42% (3-weekly red candles)

November 2018 -42% (2-weekly red candles)

September 2014 -35% (4-weekly red candles)

And that’s it, that is all the events price action history has to show this far outside the band on the weekly chart.

It is very clear reading those examples that price action is considerably oversold. Now the internet is all talk of a bear marker continuing until the year end with $20k and $13k lows. Ignore the emotion , follow the reason.

Bis bald!

Ww