This is Bitcoin’s chart in the monthly timeframe . I want to give a big picture on what the value of bitcoin can be in the long term future like probably 13 months later. There’s something interesting about the number 13, along with a lot of mind-blowing facts which I’m going to talk about in this analysis. So stay with me.

As we know, bitcoin halving happens every four years and the reward for mining BTC gets cut in half. As you see in the chart, bitcoin is growing based on logarithmic growth curves. The growth is a bit slow but surely sustainable. You also see four halvings from 2012 to 2024 in addition to 6 months, 12 months, and 24 months Moving Average (MA). Now hear some interesting facts.

After the 2012 halving, it took 13 months for BTC to reach a new All-Time High ( ATH ). and after that, it took again 13 months for the price to reach the bottom of our logarithmic channel. Interesting right? After 2013 ATH , 6-month MA crossed the 12 MA down. I have put this under analysis and I’ve concluded that 6 MA crosses 12 MA after every All-Time High. If 6 MA doesn’t cross the 12 MA down, it can mean that our previous swing high isn’t our ATH and we may expect a new ATH before the next bitcoin halving. I mean, between two halvings, a new all-time high happens, and then we witness a huge price correction. So there are two main swings between every two halvings. One major swing high after probably 13 to 17 months, and then one major swing low to the bottom of the channel in again probably 13 months. It gives us a great outlook on BTC’s long-term behavior.

13 months after the 2012 halving, BTC reached a new all-time high, the top of the channel. Then it started a bearish structure as it usually happens after a new ATH and also good to mention that 6 MA crossed down the 12 MA. 13 months later, the price hit the bottom of the channel, as it seems to be good dynamic support. After hitting the bottom of the channel, BTC started looking bullish reversal and it led to 6 MA crossing 12 MA and got bitcoin to begin its journey as I’ve referred to it as “Journey 1” in the picture above.

As you see, Journey 1 started after 6 MA crossed 12 MA. Then the 2016 halving happened and 17 months after that, BTC hit a new all-time high. The same scenario happens after every halving; new ATH , 6 MA crosses down 12 MA, 13 months after ATH happens, the price hits the bottom of the channel, 6 MA crosses up the 12 MA leading to BTC starting a new journey.

After the 2020 halving, BTC started a bullish rally and hit a New All-Time High of $64895. But is it really the new all-time high? I assume the price could reach higher values around $100K to $120K but it didn’t happen and kept holding under $64K. BTC has an important decision to make. The 6 MA hasn’t crossed 12 MA down yet. This may be a signal that a new ATH high hasn’t happened yet as it usually does after every halving. If the 6 MA crosses 12 MA down. It indicates that $64895 was the new all-time high and we may not possibly see another ATH before the 2024 halving. BUT if the 6 MA doesn’t cross 12 months MA, it says that maybe $64895 wasn’t our ATH and we should expect one in the near future before the 2024 halving.

The whole logarithmic structure shows sustainable value growth. But as I said, BTC has an important decision to make; to hold under 64K or establish a new ATH . Tell me your thoughts about BTC’s future scenarios and probabilities in the comments. Thanks in advance.

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