Hello Traders! Here is my analysis for BTCUSD .

– First I want to say, I am currently sitting the market out for the time being. After incurring such massive losses on LUNA, I’m going to take a step back until BTC stabilizes or behaves in a more predictable manner. If BTC was to stabilize tomorrow I would happily start trading, but until then I’m playing it safe.

So how will I know when BTC stabilizes???
– One of the keys to success in trading is identifying predictable patterns, levels, formations, etc. in a chart.
– As of recent BTC has been incredibly unpredictable, which has made it very hard to accurately predict price movement.
– However… BTC may be trading within a parallel channel which would give us a better idea of the range in which BTC most likely will trade.
– If BTC can hold this channel, I will trade BTC between the channel.
– If the channel is broken, expect continuation to whichever direction price broke from.

Do Parallel Channels really work?
– Parallel channels are one of the most powerful formations in trading.
– Personally my primary intraday trading strategies are based off of channels and Fibs.
– If you remember, BTC was trading between a parallel channel from January to nearly May, and traded between the channel perfectly for those months which made trading BTC very predictable.
– As you can see price wicked below the channel last night but got a very nice bounce off that level. This is the first signal that BTC may be trading between the channel.

How Do We Know If The Channel Is Invalidated?
– It’s very simple… If price breaks either below or above the channel (and does not immediately come back in) then the channel is broken.

So what’s next for BTC?
***1st let me say, I will be keeping a very close eye on this channel. If it holds we will have an excellent channel to trade between.
– It’s very hard to say at the moment, the events of the past couple days were unprecedented so that really makes it hard to predict what BTC will do.
– But… I would say the probabilities favor BTC staying in the range of $28.5K – $31K over the weekend.
– Truthfully BTC is overdue fro a large bounce and has been for days, but Crypto has a large dark cloud over it right now so undoubtedly that is affecting positive price movement.

How should you trade?
– If you are not an experienced trader I would be very cautious right now.
– Keep position sizes small 1-4% of portfolio, and be very selective with trades.
– Watch for BTC to go a few days without another large sell off, this will indicate some stabilization and may be a safer environment to trade.

Thanks everyone and best of luck trading. I apologize for not being that active this week, I got absolutely wrecked the other day and needed a break.