As I’ve mentioned a few weeks back, Bitcoin is running on very critical long-term levels. Basically this idea is a combination of two previous analyses:

Bitcoin ( BTCUSD ) closed the 2nd straight green monthly candle, first time since August 2021 to do so while at the same time closed above the 1W MA50 for the first time in 13 weeks.

This time I am looking at the 2W time-frame, in order to highlight the similarities in the RSI (mostly) structure of 2019/20 and 2021/22. The price action is also fairly similar if we exclude of course the Black Swan event of the COVID sell-off in March 2020. I’ve highlighted the RSI phases between the two periods. Right now it appears that we are past the price bottom (leg 4) and with the RSI attempting to make the bullish break-out above its MA (black trend-line) which in April 2020 led to a test of the leg (3) High.

What’s unique in the current situation is that the price is at its closest to the upper Bollinger Band since early November 2021. A break above it, was what initiated the Parabolic Rallies of early 2019 and late 2020.

What do you think will happen this time? Will a break above the upper BB kick start a new rally? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!

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