just by looking at past price movements, it looks like we are at the global bottom right now. however RSI is pointing to a possible continuation to a larger collapse.

in the past, it looks like anytime weekly RSI touched this level, it just went down further. this happened 3 times in the past and it definitely doesn’t mean that history should repeat itself. at this point, it’ll require a black swan event like covid-19. one can argue that the russia-ukraine war, recession, Apple’s new privacy standards etc in combination will trigger this. but again, this is just a possibility, not a certainty. if the market is bound to crash, I’d expect us to hit ~20k and bounce back to the bottom of the long term trend.

if there’ll be no such flash crash, then it means that we are at the bottom of the bear market and we will have a long and consistent bull market from here to the market top.

by looking at the previous price movements with respect to the halving dates, I’d expect the market top to be sometime in 2024. based on the current log waves, market top should be somewhere around $350k. this of course does not incorporate the effect of inflation . if inflation rate will stay around 10% in the next two years, net present value of $350k in 2024 turns out to be around $260k in today’s prices.