What happened in the recent drop in the actual chart of BTC is not what a fundamental analyst would expect based on the Russia-Ukraine conflict (at least for now). The retracement from the dip of January 24 at around 33K (last wave of correction) to the peak of February 10 at 45.8K (first wave of the possible reversal) was a NORMAL retracement base on EW counting and measurement, where it bounced at 0.886 Fibonacci retracement level at 34.3K. The usual correction/retracement after a completed 5 wave counts in Elliot Wave Analysis is 0.618-0.886 Fibonacci retracement area and this is what played out in the recent bounce to 40K.

The 5-wave internal counts of the possible wave 1 reversal (recent pump) are completed and retracement can go as low as 36.6K-35K, however, if it breaks the 33k and the bullish scenario gets invalidated a possible 5th wave extension of the correction can happen, and can go as low as 30K-29K and will challenge the major horizontal support at 28.8K.

In conclusion, I am bullish technically, unless otherwise my technical analysis gets invalidated.