a Harbinger of a Bull Market or Coincidence?

Each of these cycles can be divided into several phases:

• The first phase, which is not highlighted in color, is the bull market when the price forms a parabolic upward movement and market participants are in euphoria
• The second phase is highlighted in red — it is a bear market that afflicts traders and most investors.
• The third phase is highlighted in orange — it is an accumulation that begins after reaching the bottom.
• The fourth phase is marked in yellow — this is a parabolic movement after accumulation, which occurred throughout all three cycles.
• The fifth phase is highlighted in gray — this is the continuation of accumulation until halving and a new bull rally.

It to look attentively at the current cycle (that is, the third) we can see:

• the first phase is a bullish trend up to $20,000.
• the second phase is a drop to $3200.
• the third phase is flat, which did not differ in increased volatility, at that moment the whales accumulated coins.
• the fourth phase — a sharp increase, up to $14,000.
• the fifth phase — a new correction to $8,200 and the continued accumulation of assets.

This theory tells us about the continuation of accumulation until the next halving in May 2020, which should be followed by a new bullish trend.

Now let’s move on to the price forecast. The difference between the high of the first and second cycle is about 3600%, between the second and third — 1600–1700%. That is, each time the profit as a percentage goes down, so the third cycle was approximately half weaker than the second. As a result, according to Sunny Decree’s theory, projecting the estimated percentage of growth proportionally, we can expect that the next BTC high will be at around $185,000. Using the structure of the third cycle, we can suggest that the peak of the bull market will happen in the summer of 2021.

Next, let’s look at the theory of professional trader Bob Lucas. He analyzes the so-called cycles. In his opinion, the last four-year cycle (which contained 52 weeks in the drop and 153 weeks in growth) came to its end, it took 205 weeks in total.

Bob Lucas believes that the price we saw on December 10, 2018, was the end of this cycle. It is important to understand that the video in which he tells this theory in detail appeared on his channel on April 2, 2019 — on the very day when the market began to grow, so six months later we can notice that he was right in many ways, but not in everything.

So, Bob Lucas says in his video that at the beginning of a new cycle we will see the incredible power that will rapidly push the price to new levels. Lucas noted that at the time of recording the video, a lot of people are beginning to actively buy BTC in hope on rapid growth.

He believed that in April the market was not yet at the stage of the final bull race. He said that there will be growing up to plus or minus $6,000 in the near future, followed by a tough correction that will unsettle many weak investors. In his opinion, during this correction, the price may even update the December bottom, and only after that, a new cycle will begin, which will last about 150 weeks in growth. As for the final price, he does not have a specific figure, but he believes that the rate of the first cryptocurrency will be more than 100 thousand US dollars.

He stated that a hard correction should happen around August 2019, but in fact, it did not happen. Even though he made a mistake with the time frame and the estimated rate of BTC, he predicted the vector of the development of the situation quite correctly. Recent events are an excellent confirmation of this when on September 24, 2019, the BTC rate fell by $1,500 in less than a day. It was the correction Bob Lucas spoke about, but it happened a month later than he expected. Yes, it`s not likely that the rate falls to $3,000, but in current conditions, it is quite realistic to imagine a BTC rate of $6,000. Indeed, many analysts and experts agree that the “bloody Tuesday”, September 24th was not the final fall, it caused the next phase of accumulation of assets, which will take some time.

Let’s drop someone else’s opinion and do what professional investors usually do — just take the facts we have and analyze them with a cold head.

1. If to take a look at the BTC chart for its entire history, you can see certain patterns that have been repeated in a cyclic form several times.

2. These cycles are conditionally divided by halvings, according to the principle of one halving — one parabolic growth.

3. Even after shocking price kickbacks, the BTC rate never again fell to the values ​​that were before the start of the parabolic growth.

4. Each subsequent halving increases the cost of mining BTC, which plays an important role in increasing the value of the coin.

5. Bitcoin Halving 2020 is a very hype event, so in any case, this will affect the price.

Can we predict the future based on this? Of course, we cannot know for sure what surprises the cryptocurrency market is preparing for us. But no doubt that the cryptocurrency market, moreover Bitcoin, has great prospects. Bitcoin should be considered only as a long-term asset, which has always shown huge returns for a long period of time.

But it is important to understand that this article is not a guide to action since the digital coin market is quite unpredictable and it is a rather difficult task to foretell any outcome in advance. Do not invest in cryptocurrencies more than you can afford to lose. If you spend more money than you can effort, then you will not be able to think rationally and survive often storms in this young market. Treat your investments with a cold mind, and then you will succeed.

Bitcoin has already survived two halvings during its short history, and in less than nine months, we will see another decrease in the reward for miners. If you carefully study the charts, you can see that the BTC rate always grows before the halving. And after it, the market goes into a phase of parabolic growth, it lasts about a year, and then comes the correction and a protracted bear market.

A similar scenario has already been repeated twice and many traders believe that we will see a similar picture in the future, since the next halving should take place in May 2020. We observed a significant increase in the hash rate, the number of wallets, transactions and an increase in the rate of the main cryptocurrency 13 months before this event.

Earlier that we carried a detailed analysis of the current state of the Litecoin cryptocurrency, and also analyzed its behavior against the background of the recent halving that took place on August 5, 2019. If you are interested in this topic, here is a link to our study.