Hello everyone,

after some months i’m finally back with more trading ideas, educational content, videos & livestreams here on TradingView 🙂
Let’s start with my current view on the BTCUSD price

• We can observe a strong correlation to the stock market in terms of liquidity flowing out of risky assets. Additionally, we can see how the FED is raising the interest rates, with the next hike of approx. 50 basis points in June. I don’t think that these events are price in yet and the reaction in the whole market to another raise will sustain.
• From a “fundamental” perspective, the whole market is under pressure. This resulted in a strong correction, which brought us back to the $25000 area. This level is supporting the price right now, even though we don’t see any strong volume during the current retracement.
• One key element of me taking action in the market is to determine in which direction i trade. In this case, i am only taking short positions and i will always look for the highest entry until i see a confirmed trend-change.
• The price is currently – like previously mentioned – in a retracement while moving in a bear-flag . This is a continuation pattern. Since the primary trend is down, we expect the suprises to occure in the direction of the trend.
• I’m expecting the price to move towards the top of the bull-flag , sligthly above the resistance area at $31500 in order to grab so liquidity and then move down. According to this chart, this should happen with the upcoming weekend volatility
• In terms of indicators, i’m using the RSI and the EMA50. You might want to spot the entry for your short-position while the RSI is overbought and the price is getting rejected at the EMA50 (red line). This would be the perfect scenario.
• Everything else is explained in the chart. This is just an example so please do your own analysis and follow your own trading plan 🙂

I’ll observe the market and take action according to my trading plan. I personally leverage this position and take profit during the way down with my final target at the $26000 level.

Let me know if you liked this idea with a comment or a like. Feel free to check out the stuff below as well ⤵️