Before we dive deeper into the analysis I want to state clearly what I always state with fractals: no one can predict the future and price patterns/fractals are valid until they aren’t, take them with a grain of salt. However, try to keep an open mind.

If we take a close look at the current price pattern from SAND and compare it to BTC’s last bear market, we see some stunning similarities. See below for a deep-dive:
1: Last sell off before final parabolic move. Both moves are around +235%.
2: Top has been reached.
3: First sell-off after top, both between 45%-50%.
4: Price recovery of around 60%-65%.
5: Major capitulation event. Setting a long-term support (dotted purple line). Both capitulations have been around -70% from the top.
6: Recovery after capitulation event. Fails to make a new high above (4).
7: Another minor bounce from the support area , lower than (6).

The similarities are overwhelming and fit the overall bearish narrative that the bottom is not in yet. In my view, BTC is currently trading inside a bear-flag pattern and will eventually break bearish to make a new low. This is until proven otherwise and we manage to break the pattern on the top side. See below.

So, assuming that SAND is following the BTC bear-market pattern, we can expect much more downside and a final capitulation event in the coming weeks/months. The capitulation will be triggered by a bearish break out through the capitulation support, the lows at (5).

There’s also good news. The final capitulation of BTC caused a drop from $6k to $3k, which has been the bear-market low. If we see the same happening for SAND we can assume that the bear-market low is in and the only way from here is up.

Share your thoughts in the comments.