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This analysis is part 1 of a 2 part series in which I will make the (unfortunate) case that Bitcoin will eventually reach the low $20,000 range before rallying back up to +$100,000.

In this chart, the setup is Bitcoin on the Weekly time frame, set to a Logarithmic scale with 50/200 Moving Averages. This is one of the best charts to observe the true macro nature of a cryptocurrency. And since Bitcoin has the most historical data, it’s a great chart to use to put the crypto market in perspective.

Going all the way back to 2014, there have been a total of 4 times in which the price fell below the 50 MA. And EACH of the previous 3 times, the price has come all the way down to the 200 MA before bouncing back up. It has taken an average of 250 days for the price to touch to 200 MA after breaching the 50 MA. This would put Bitcoin in a continued downtrend until somewhere around August/September 2022.

Of course within this downtrend, Bitcoin may have rallies to $50k or something but the strong historical evidence is that there will be a continued downtrend to the $20,000 range.

Why does this happen? The technical mechanics are that many of the large Wall Street firms are not actual traders hunched over their computers using MetaMask to buy & sell crypto. It is estimated that 70% of all stock market and crypto volume is bots. The Wall Street firms have basic rules for their bots such as sell crypto if the price falls below the 50 MA and buy buy buy as much as possible when the price gets to the 200 MA. It all becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.