Why I am feeling like the market will dump the fug out

Why I am feeling like the market will dump the fug out

Bullish arguments

1. 10,5k resistance has been touched for 3 times already.

2. Ascending triangle

3. Bitmex’s and all other exchanges funding’s are neutral. Also okex L/S is 1.0000000 which means this market is not over-leveraged with neither shorts or longs (okex and bitmex have biggest OI). Whales on those exchanges hold spot btc and hedge it by shorting 1x and with it they get paid funding if u 10 mil dollars of btc and would be paid by funding only, u would get 100s of thousands of dollars over the past 2 months. Not a bad deal while the market is ranging. But once they feel like the market is going up, or funding gets negative, they will fire their shorts === more fuel to pump the price, because crypto is now driven by derivatives, mostly.

https://www.okex.com/markets/futures-dat…
https://coinalyze.net/futures-data/globa…

4. Mining capitulation is over. Only once the market corrected 20% before getting pumped but indeed, other times it pumped.

5. Stock to flow ratio, all of those gay charts from twitter and what i said in my previous ideas, u may check it in the idea below.

Bearish arguments:

1. Tether inflow spike. Why does it work? I do not know but it had 100% accuracy.
https://imgur.com/D7GQ9cM
2. Realized Cap grew which means miners are moving their btcs to exchanges so they can sell em. Since we do not have any support from retail dumb money inflow, who will pump the price?
https://imgur.com/2NcF7mA
3. Historically, Q3 was always fucked with one exception when btc was in a strong uptrend
https://analytics.skew.com/dashboard/mac…
4. BTC is highly correlated with SPX , and its SPX is about to be abolished. Why? Low seasonality , everybody is waiting for earnings and those are about to be great (who said they are not price in), also q3 is usually the worst in bear markets, RSI break,
https://twitter.com/InsiderBuySS/status/…
8DkaqRnqOaBqvyyZhb93ff8hPAfq9zeDZGc/edit?usp=sharing
https://twitter.com/InsiderBuySS/status/…
https://twitter.com/bespokeinvest/status…
5. COVID strikes back
https://twitter.com/bespokeinvest/status…
https://twitter.com/bespokeinvest/status…
6. Defi shitcoins got pumped. “When pigs fly”, what are u expecting to happen next?
7. Greatest options expiration ever. 10000k of btc (more than 1 billion dollars were thrown into Derebit’s and CME’s hands. U think dumb money? – Wrong! Retail crypto traders do not know how to read? They get their analysis from utubee videos, do u think they would be able to understand what is option? Anyway, options are mostly used as a hedge by professional players. It means big fish was shorting and got eaten by even bigger fish so now as they got completely fucked by derebit, they will close their shorts on bitmex.
https://analytics.skew.com/dashboard/bit…
8. Binance is completely refusing to short
https://trdr.io/snapshot/F2E4BD1D11B6183…

Short term bonus: Order depth looks like the price will nuke

https://trdr.io/snapshot/9C67889CD9EC821…
https://trdr.io/snapshot/D2CC2CE2088012A…
https://trdr.io/snapshot/6D65C35CD85FC14…

Targets:
Are always conditional but because i am biased as Flood 7100 or 200 wsma

Published at Wed, 01 Jul 2020 00:06:07 +0000

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