I hope all of you did well and remember, this is not a sprint but a marathon .
Just learn the lessons of the past few days as I’m sure many of you, just like me, lacked some convictions in certain areas, near resistance.
For those who HODL or just go long, no sweat.
I have to admit, it wasn’t easy because what happens during the bear market, you get rusty and forget how the bull market or behaves so
you have to become accustomed to it again. All we did was short for the past months.
Here is what I’m thinking, observed and plan what to watch and do (currently unless something else happens since this post)
1) I have been BIASED for some time and don’t see that changing any time soon, so this post will reflect this (the reasons given for my bias is in a recent post);
2) The ALTs went crazy and those who jumped onto them, well done. You better know when to leave this strategy when the time comes as BTC dominance will most likely get speed and surpass them. I learnt this through experience last year;
3) I believe we have hit the top (70% likely) in this run. The other less likely % is that it can go higher and if it hits above my target of 9k, breaking the structure, then I can see the potential macro inv . could come to play;
4) A few divergences in the shorter time frames made their play in this run but good to see they bounced back strongly;
5) I see a structure with a potential inv . (gray triangles on display;
6) I currently have ABCDE mapped into an upward however this can be misleading at times and can be a continuation pattern (less likely) where my (D) could be an (E)’
7) We have a number of confirmedestablished resistances in this run. I recall 78-8200 being one zone and 8500 the next. So I would imagine these will be the supports lines on the way down’
9) We have the MACRO of the channel broken and this too will be my last strong support line and it is likely to be tested once more. There is a possibility we can fall into it, but I see this unlikely’
10) The 2 Year MA has been touched and it looks like the resistance line as well, confluence. We will need to stay above this (2 Day candles) to have confidence that the bull trendreversal has started (this will be the 2nd cycle before the next parabolic move which is the main bull run, envisioned to start by the end of this year)’
Note: The 2 Year MA observation came from Woobull charts and I have some snaps below as for reference’
11) Some losses are expected after a strong move and at a key resistance’
These 2 numbers come to mind.
> 61.8 % price drop = 8200 bounce (equates to strong )
> 70% price drop = 7500 (equates to bottom structure)
12) I had 9K as the target and hence we are probably not finished. Question is, where do we bounce to reach for it’
13) I noted that GOLD also made a run in sync with BTCor Cryptos. You can play forward my post to compare the charts
*** 2 YEAR MA Daily BTC ***
4 HRLY chart
Close up on current 4 HLRY chart
While typing this post, just noticed the price drop
Published at Wed, 15 Jan 2020 04:27:34 +0000