BTC is currently resting atop the 100 moving average on the 1-day chart, this moving average is going to start pressing Bitcoin for an answer in the next few days. As you can see the ceiling, for now, is the white resistance line. I am optimistic that BTC will jump above the resistance line, why? We have not lost the 100 as support for a few days, this means that BTC wants to use it as a base to spring up above. Also, another small sign is that the 100 is beginning to point up. Need another sign? Ok, we hit the 50% pullback (retracement) and bounced up from there, that’s a sign of a healthy run. Again and again, we are still under a death cross which means we are only partially excited about BTC going up because this run could be over at the 100 moving average, which will be a pretty good payday for a lot of us.
Over at the 3-day chart, we don’t have the best of news for the long term since the 50 moving average is crossing the 100 moving average down. When a faster-moving average is below a slower moving one it is not good. To understand this in an easier way let me put it like this; If the 20 crosses below the 50 that’s not good if the 50 crosses below the 100 that’s not good. Overall if a moving average with a smaller number crosses down one with a higher number, it could mean bad news. Below you can see the 50 in yellow wanting to cross the 100 in blue. It is not a major thing but let’s put a pin on it. If we find more bad news on other time frames then we’ll start to worry.
THIS IS THE IMPORTANT PART
Let’s look at the relationship that the 200 Moving average has with price (use the main 1 day chart as reference). We are also going to look at the behavior of this moving average while we are under the 50/200MA death cross. Typically BTC will drop in price (which it already did) and then it will form a base (which it’s in the process of doing) it will then start taking shots from that base at the 200 moving average and it will get rejected a few times (We have not done that even once yet.) The base, for now, appears to be $6800 it will then use this base price to take a shot at the 200MA which is at $9100, it will more than likely get rejected back to the $6800 region.
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THE TREND: Going Down
THE OUTLOOK: A rally may be coming soon.
Published at Mon, 13 Jan 2020 15:08:59 +0000